Africa: Will Afcon 2024 Be the Most Competitive Yet?

The Africa Cup of Nations 2024 has no real favorite, a lot of contenders, a lot of committed stars — everything it needs to be one of the greatest on the pitch. And it can still be full of surprises.

Despite being an old soccer tournament — held for the first time 67 years ago — the Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) is still one of the most difficult ones to predict.

In 37 editions, 15 different countries have lifted the trophy. Virtually every continental powerhouse has at least won it once and some smaller countries have also been able to go all the way, like Zambia in 2012.

In recent years, AFCON has favored big teams like Algeria or Senegal, however history has shown that anything can happen during the tournament.

Just ask Didier Drogba, considered by many to be one of Africa’s best players, who ultimately never managed to lift the trophy despite being part of Ivory Coast’s so-called golden generation, with the likes of Yaya Toure and Gervinho, among others, in their ranks.

Senegalese star Sadio Mane says that AFCON 2024 is even more difficult to predict.

“This competition is going to be one of the toughest since I started playing in it because all the big countries are here and they all have their targets,” explained the former Bayern Munich forward to cafonline.com.

No clear favorites

Sadio Mane is perhaps trying to diffuse the pressure, since reigning AFCON champions Senegal are one of the most awaited teams this year — but that doesn’t mean he’s not on to something.

For the first time in years, Ivory Coast is not the overwhelming favorite.

Senegal is, of course, one to watch, “because it’s a team which may not look as attractive as the others, football-wise, but they are a team that is used to going far in competitions and doing what is necessary to get through the rounds,” explained Ibrahima Traore, former German Bundesliga player and ex-captain of the Guinean national team.

But the Lions are not boxing alone in their category. Some nations have also some arguments to present.

Morocco will want to show that their incredible run during the 2022 FIFA World Cup — in which they finished fourth — was not a lucky one.

Egypt can count on a solid group of players from Al Ahly and Zamalek, two of the biggest clubs on the continent, and will try to bring Mohamed Salah his first AFCON.

Algeria, winners of AFCON 2019, will try to make up for their surprise exit in the first round in Cameroon 2021.

Nigeria, who have not won in 11 years, also has a good shot.

Lead by recently-crowned African Footballer of the Year, Victor Osimhen, the Super Eagles are blessed with a tremendous attack — Boniface, Lookman, Chukweze and Iheanacho — however, it might not be enough in such a dense tournament.

The Nigerian team is still “struggling a bit,” according to Jay Jay Okocha. “We are not consistent enough,” the former Eintracht Frankfurt player told DW.

Other teams look like they can achieve something at this AFCON including Cameroon, Ghana, Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Tunisia and of course host nation Ivory Coast.

Will home soil be an advantage for Ivory Coast?

On a continent where disparities are big between the nations — climate, quality of the infrastructures and quality of the pitch, for example — playing at home has been an advantage for a long time.

But playing on home soil is no longer a guarantee of success.

The last team that lifted the continental trophy at home was Egypt: It was in 2006, nine editions ago. No team managed to play a final in front of its own crowd since then.

Despite the home advantage, the Elephants are not seen as favorites, like Idriss Diallo, president of the Ivorian Football Federation (FIF) confessed.

“We’re building a new team. If you look at our squad now, I think 30% are very young, it’s their first competition,” Diallo told the magazine FourFourTwo. “But we’re going to try to bring in a very good squad so that we’re ready.”

But Ivory Coast is working quite well. As the host team, the Elephants didn’t have to go through the qualifications.

In 2023, Ivory Coast lost only one out of nine games and just concluded its preparation to the AFCON with an impressive 5-1 win against Sierra Leone.

“We wanted to be in AFCON conditions, we wanted to suffer from the work, the heat and see how the group reacted to the effort”, coach Jean-Louis Gasset told reporters. “And everything was extremely positive.”

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Ivory Coast might not have a golden generation this time, but the Elephants will count on the massive support of an orange wave around all the country.

Stars who are happy to be part of it

Since this tournament has no clear favorite, there are plenty of stars who are going to do everything to help their team reach their target.

Nigeria’s Victor Osimhen, Egypt’s Mohamed Salah, Senegal’s Sadio Mane, Ghana’s Mohammed Kudus or Guinea’s Serhou Guirassy all play in the most competitive leagues in Europe and around the world.

But even if they have played and lived abroad for years — and some of them have already won some prestigious titles, such as the Champions League — winning the AFCON is still their ultimate goal.

When Sadio Mane lifted the trophy two years ago, he called it the “best day” of his life.

“I won the Champions League and some [other] trophies but this is the special one for me. This is more important for me,” he said.

Edited by: Keith Walker