Trump’s 2016 win shook markets. Traders won’t get fooled again.

Donald Trump’s surprise victory in the 2016 U.S. presidential election delivered a shock to financial markets. If he manages to secure a second one, traders will — if anything — be far more prepared.

Trump seems to be on a quicker path to the nomination than eight years ago, when he didn’t lock it down until May. And polls show it would likely be a close contest between him and President Joe Biden, a shift from his long-shot status in 2016.

The result: Wall Street is already starting to game out the impact of Trump’s possible return to the White House.