Africa: Cocoa Futures Surge Over 80 Percent As Adverse Weather Disrupts Harvest

TLDR

• Cocoa futures surge by over 80% year-to-date due to heavy rains disrupting harvest season in Ivory Coast.
• Intense downpours hinder harvesting, drying, and transport of beans, causing supply concerns.
• Cocoa bean arrivals at Ivorian ports dropped sharply, reflecting global market volatility.

Cocoa futures have surged by over 80% year-to-date, with a 10% rise since October, due to heavy rains severely disrupting the harvest season in Ivory Coast, the world’s top cocoa producer.

Intense downpours, particularly in the southwestern regions, have hindered harvesting, complicated drying, and delayed the transport of beans to ports.

From October 1 to 6, according to government estimates, cocoa bean arrivals at Ivorian ports amounted to just 13,000 tons, a sharp drop compared to 50,000 tons during the same period last year. As supply concerns mount, cocoa futures prices continue to rise, reflecting global market volatility.

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Key Takeaways

The weather-related supply disruptions in Ivory Coast follow earlier adverse conditions in Ghana, the world’s second-largest cocoa producer, which saw strong winds and insufficient rainfall negatively impact its harvest in early 2024. With ongoing concerns over supply shortages and deteriorating bean quality, the market is bracing for further volatility in the coming weeks. The situation highlights the fragility of global cocoa supplies, with potential price increases expected if the weather conditions persist.