Africa: East Africa Braces for Wheat Price Surge As Russian Crop Falls to 11-Year Low

East Africa faces the prospect of higher wheat prices in 2025 due to a projected poor crop in Russia, the region’s primary supplier.

The 2025 Russian wheat crop is expected to fall to an 11-year low, raising concerns for countries like Kenya, which imports up to 75 percent of its wheat needs from Russia and Ukraine.

The Sovecon consultancy warned earlier this week that wheat sowing rates in Russia have dropped significantly, dampening the outlook for next year’s harvest.

Russia, the world’s top wheat exporter, has been hit by severe drought, threatening its winter crop.

Chicago wheat prices briefly surged to a two-week high following the warning but later slid on concerns about demand, according to Reuters.

“We are closely monitoring the situation with the winter crops. It appears to be extremely difficult, potentially turning into some kind of dramatic scenario,” said Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy, during an agricultural investors conference.

Rylko noted that the situation is particularly dire in Russia’s Volgograd and Saratov regions, the country’s fourth and sixth-largest grain-producing areas.

Kirill Yershov, head of Aeon Agro, which farms over 240,000 hectares in the Penza and Saratov regions, echoed these concerns.

“There will be problems with the wheat harvest next year. The situation is critical, with everything planted in dry soil. We have planted less than last year, and many others have done the same,” Yershov is quoted by Reuters.

Russia’s wheat production has been on a downward trend since hitting a record 158 million tonness in 2022.

Last year, the harvest dropped to 148 million tonnes, and the forecast for this year has been cut further to 132 million tonnes.

IKAR has also revised its wheat crop forecast for this year to 81.8 million tonnes, down from 82.2 million tonnes. The grain crop forecast has been lowered to 124.5 million tonnes from 125 million tonnes.